Predictability of Pandemics

I am perplexed, frustrated, bored, and just flat out tired of the blame game blaring through the media 24/7. As a biologist with a Ph.D. in Wildlife and Fisheries Science I can inform you without question, viruses such as COVID19 are predictable. And, other viral pandemics will happen in the future.

One does not need a graduate degree in science to see this, only a sense of logic. Consider: 1) the global population is growing exponentially, 2) relatively virgin unknown territories are being developed, e.g. deforestation happening in the Amazon and Indonesia, 3) people are concentrating in mega cities around the world, 4) in many of these megacities sanitation is way below that which is necessary to protect community health, 5) we now function on a global economy and no country is “an island in the stream.” All are fully immersed in the currents of the stream, 6) people, animals, and manufactured goods are moving around the globe continuously. The Earth community is one and what happens in one corner will affect all elements of the community.

What to do? My advice: 1) know and accept the realities of the global community, 2) invest in and maintain preventive and response strategies built on global responsibility paradigm, 3) take politics and personalities out of the effort. The risk and probability of the next pandemic grows with the global population. Now is the time to build strategies and tools to prevent and mitigate the impacts of the next pandemic.

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