Author: Quenton Dokken

After several weeks of quarantine at home and social distancing, we see a very different world out our windows. Wildlife roaming city streets, air without smog, turtles returning to nesting beaches in record numbers, and everyone experiencing cabin fever! Although 86% of the population agrees with the isolation strategy for slowing and hopefully controlling the spread of COVID19, pockets of disgruntled citizens are demanding to be set free! Civil liberties are being violated!

The primary motivation for advocacy of reopening society is money. A Texas politicians has publicly said we should be willing to face death to protect our economy. My response, you sir, go first and please designate which of your family members you are willing to sacrifice! Money is not flowing as it always has and people are scared. Rightfully so, but one thing we can count on is that the sun will continue to rise and set, and society will continue to move forward. How do I know this, history. Through countless upheavals, famins, wars, natural catastrophes, changes in the balance of global power, and pandemics the sun has always continued to rise and set and society has continued to move forward.

As we move beyond COVID19 it is not going to be an easy adjustment. Local, national, and global economies are based on consumption. Consumption is based on individuals having money to spend. Money to spend is dependent upon jobs. And, jobs are dependent upon market demand and money to fulfill that demand; a complex convoluted spider web of economic dynamics. Above all our sense of security and perceptions of quality of life are based on the economic cycle, rational or not, continuing without glitches. COVID19 is a significant glitch.

COVID19 is also an opportunity. It has highlighted the weaknesses in our socioeconomic structures and our preparedness for and resilience to glitches. And, do not doubt that glitches will continue to assault our sense of well being and quality of life. We can see the weak links and take steps to strengthen them. Or, conversely, we can push to return to the “good old days” without addressing the weak links only to face the same situation in the future. We have a choice and for the sake of my sons, grandsons, and so on, I hope we make the right choice.

I am perplexed, frustrated, bored, and just flat out tired of the blame game blaring through the media 24/7. As a biologist with a Ph.D. in Wildlife and Fisheries Science I can inform you without question, viruses such as COVID19 are predictable. And, other viral pandemics will happen in the future.

One does not need a graduate degree in science to see this, only a sense of logic. Consider: 1) the global population is growing exponentially, 2) relatively virgin unknown territories are being developed, e.g. deforestation happening in the Amazon and Indonesia, 3) people are concentrating in mega cities around the world, 4) in many of these megacities sanitation is way below that which is necessary to protect community health, 5) we now function on a global economy and no country is “an island in the stream.” All are fully immersed in the currents of the stream, 6) people, animals, and manufactured goods are moving around the globe continuously. The Earth community is one and what happens in one corner will affect all elements of the community.

What to do? My advice: 1) know and accept the realities of the global community, 2) invest in and maintain preventive and response strategies built on global responsibility paradigm, 3) take politics and personalities out of the effort. The risk and probability of the next pandemic grows with the global population. Now is the time to build strategies and tools to prevent and mitigate the impacts of the next pandemic.

Drs. Steven Murawski and Donald Boesch recently published an overview of what we have learned through scientific investigation of the Macondo oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 https://theconversation.com/us/environment. Murawski and Boesch are noted authorities in marine science and their overview is well worth reading. Within days of the spill, really hours, media headlines were announcing the death of the Gulf of Mexico as a living, productive, sustainable resource. I challenged the profits of doom saying, “let the scientist complete their investigations before making such claims.”

Oil spilled in the Gulf of Mexico was not a new occurrence. Natural seeps release oil and gas constantly and likely have done so since the formation of the Gulf through geological processes. In 1942 more than 20 ships were sunk by German U-boats off the coast of Louisiana and another 20+ were sunk off of the southern coast of Florida. In 1979 the IXTOC spill in the Bay of Campeche flowed oil into the southern Gulf for 10 months. And, numerous catastrophic and chronic spills have occurred and are occurring. Through no fault of human efforts, the Gulf of Mexico has remained alive and productive. People are not dying at the water’s edge and fish are still plentiful in the markets.

Oil spills, catastrophic and chronic, are not good for the ocean and should be avoided at all cost. But, the world demands hydrocarbons for energy and manufactured products; and therein is the conflict. The second largest source of income for the U.S. federal government and most coastal state governments is revenues derived from oil and gas production. Hydrocarbon is the single most influential driver of the global economy and balance of power.

As the scientific investigations of the impact of the Macondo spill have demonstrated, oil spills have long-term impacts. But, the Gulf is still alive and productive. Logically, the ecosystems of the Gulf of Mexico can absorb only limited human driven insult. There is a “straw that breaks the camel’s back;” unfortunately, science cannot yet tell us which straw will be the one.

Following Macondo the federal government moved forward with progressive guidelines and requirements to reduce the likelihood of another catastrophic spill. Over the last three years, these guidelines have been weakened due to political and economic pressure. I’ve heard Dr. Boesch on more than one occasion say this is wrong! I agree.

Right now, efforts are being developed to address one of the largest oil spills in history, that in the Niger delta of Nigeria. Simultaneously, large new oil fields are being developed in waters offshore of Gynana and the Bahamas. The world is oversupplied with oil and yet the push to find and develop more continues, slowing only when the per barrel price drops to unreasonable lows.

As long as there is market demand, oil will be produced. As long as oil provides the power base for countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.A., oil will be produced. In response, the intense scientific studies of the impacts of spills such a Macondo need to continue, and guidelines, restrictions, and preparedness must be maintained.

Wow, what is going on?  Shoppers fighting over toilet paper (tp) in stores, SUVs packed to the roof with tp, and one family ordering more than $3,000 worth of toilet paper, enough for years!  The only comparable example of panic buying in response to COVID-19 is for guns. 

Manufacturers say there is no shortage of tp or guns.  Guns kind of make sense though; who knows when you are going to have to shoot a marauding zombie or neighbor trying to steal your tp?  But, tp?  It is being manufactured and shipped to stores 24/7 – take a chill pill people!  COVID-19 is a respiratory infection not intestinal. 

But, tp is an interesting topic to contemplate.  Americans use more than 7 billion rolls per year, about 23.6 rolls per person!  This is about 50% more than any other country and is partially the result of efficient flushing toilets.  Got to move that soiled paper down the line.

The first recorded use of paper for hygiene comes from China in the 6^th century A.D.  The Japanese used wooden devices called chugi which kind of looked like a tongue depressor, no doubt hard on hemorrhoids!  

Romans used communal sponges attached to a stick and dipped in vinegar.  A sponge on a stick and vinegar, ok, but communal? And, during the days of outhouses, I’ve heard my long deceased relatives speak of corncobs and the Sears and Roebuck catalog as acceptable means of keeping ones backside clean, or near so.  I’m betting the corncob was more efficient.

Did you know there are two kinds of manufacturing processes for toilet paper?  One specific to the use of chipped wood as the base source and the other using recycled paper.  Regardless of the base material, trees are involved as wood pulp in the manufacture of paper and toxic chemicals are produced (e.g. dioxin and bisphenol A).  Entire farmed forests are sacrificed and millions of gallons of toxic water produced just to keep your behind clean and fresh!

And, toilet paper is engineered!  The fiber length must be just right to ensure sturdiness during the cleaning process, not fun when your finger pokes through, and rapid breakdown once flushed into the sewer system.  Chipped wood, 70% hardwood and 30% soft wood, is reduced to a pulp slurry in pressure cookers with toxic chemicals from which the velvety soft paper you crave is produced.  Who knew?  Tp can come as 1 to 6 ply.  No doubt, the 6 ply is reserved for billionaires.  I’ve certainly never seen it.

Toilet paper has recreational uses too!  Often you see trees adorned with seemingly miles of streaming toilet paper and a bemused parent directing kids in the cleanup.  Cats and toddlers get endless pleasure from unspooling a roll onto the floor. 

Tp as a fashion statement – absolutely. Many an adolescent girl has stuffed her bra with tp.  And, musical entertainment; how many times have you seen the commercial with the family of bears singing a catchy tune about the attributes of a leading brand?  Several times a day I bet now that you are all home fending off the coronavirus. 

How many of you have used the cardboard spindle which the tp is spooled around as a “tadatadaaaa” megaphone?  That may be the only musical instrument I’ve ever successfully carried a tune on. 

Today’s tp comes in colors, embossed patterns, and scented; a decorator item no less.  Much more aesthetically pleasing than the old corncob.  Tp certainly adds to a favorable first impression of a home.

Tp as a source of never ending debate; do you put it on the dispenser unspooling over the top or underneath?  An anger flash point, men have you ever been taken to task by woman for leaving the toilet lid up or the tp dispenser empty?  Embarrassing!

Tp is also the hub of a international industry involving not only those who make the Tp, but also those hard working men and women who produce the packaging, ship it around the world, grow the trees, keep the toilets flushing, deal with the toxic chemicals left over, and on and on.  There is money in those humble rolls of paper!

So, the next time you pull off a handful of toilet paper, give some thought to the forests that are gone, the engineering miracle you are going to wipe your butt with, the beautiful young lady whose prom dress now fits better, the musical instrument that is the prize at the end of the roll, and all the jobs you are supporting.  Enjoy the wipe!

“There are no great men, there are only great challenges that ordinary men are forced by circumstances to meet.” Fleet Admiral William F. Halsey Jr. As we face the COVID-19 pandemic, we see greatness all around us.  Just look, you will see courageous people stepping forward to tackle a great challenge head on.  Medical professionals, military personnel, business owners, neighbors, Moms and Dads, and more, the list is endless.  As Admiral Halsey suggested, this is what defines greatness.  This is also what defines the best in humanity; ordinary people, men and women, taking on great challenges to the benefit of all.

Good Day Fellow Travelers,

My oldest son, Craig, and friend Jo, encouraged me to start a blog. My thought, why; what do I know or have to say that anyone would be interested? Their advice, just throw something against the wall and see if anything sticks. Ok, I will do that.

In all seriousness, I have concerns about the future. With three sons and two grandsons, 5 and 15 years old, I think a lot about the future. I grew up in a world very different from which my father grew up in and the world of my sons and grandsons will be very different than what I consider normal, often referred to as the “good old days.”

I was born in 1951 and remember when clothes washing machines had a hand crank roller to squeeze water from the clothes, I cranked my brother’s arm through it one day! My great grandmother always had fresh made biscuits on the breakfast table by sunrise and my great grandfather had a mule in the barn to pull his garden plow.

We got our first television when I was about four; our first window air conditioner for the house when I ten. At 12, Dad moved us to a ten acre plot of land in the middle of a cotton field two miles away from the nearest town. “You boys need to grow up in the country, not in the city where you can into trouble” he said.

Times changed fast! In 1903 the Wright brothers flew at Kittyhawk. In 1969, man landed on the moon, just 63 years from first flight to planting a flag on the moon! In 1971 I paid $120.00 for a four function calculator at J.C. Penny. By 1980 I was carrying a multifunction scientific calculator in a holster on my belt! In 1982 I sat down for the first time at a main frame computer terminal in a statistics class. And the rate of technological development continues to get faster and faster.

The global human population has skyrocketed heading toward 9 billion by 2100 requiring more businesses to support more jobs to create more consumption of manufactured and natural resources creating more impact on the environment etc. All of this is happening on an exponential scale.

Just how much more demand can the Earth support? How do we create more businesses to support more jobs etc? How resilient are sovereignty boundaries? The “have nots” always have and always will migrate to where the “have plenty” congregate.

In the United States we conduct life under the guidelines of the Constitution written in 1776; 244 years ago. Our governing structures at the federal, state, and local levels have established operational rules to favor one political party or the other, i.e. my political party is always right; we win – you lose.

Elected office is now a career option and not a calling to serve the wellbeing of all constituents. And, government policy is for sale to the highest bidder that keeps an elected official in office.

Climate change is real as is the coronavirus, COVID-19. Yet special interests have worked diligently to denigrate the science required to combat these global maladys. What has gone wrong in this country?

Yes, I am concerned about the future my sons and grandchildren will face. Yes, I believe we,the ruling generation, have a responsibility to future generations. Yes, I believe that nothing can be fixed if we fail to put it on the table for all the world to see and act upon. I am a scientist. My job is not to tell you what you want to hear and what makes you happy, but to tell you the truth. I will do this in the hope it will benefit the people of the future.

Quenton Dokken, Ph.D.